--- title: "90% of the Biggest SPX Rallies Happened in Bear Markets" date: "2026-04-01 09:17:15" author: "Russell" permalink: "https://boringedge.com/90-percent-biggest-spx-rallies-happened-bear-markets/" categories: ["Uncategorized"] tags: [] featured_image: "https://boringedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/blog2_top_gains_vs_drawdown.png" featured_image_alt: "" description: "We pulled the top 50 single-day gains in S&P 500 history. 90% occurred below the 200-day moving average. 72% during bear markets. The most exciting days happen during the worst times." --- ![""](https://boringedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/blog2_top_gains_vs_drawdown.png) *The most exciting days in stock market history all happened when things were terrible. Here's the proof — and why "boring" is the real bull signal.* A Counterintuitive List If someone asked you to guess when the biggest single-day gains in S&P 500 history occurred, you might guess during euphoric bull markets. Maybe the dot-com boom. Maybe the post-COVID recovery. You'd be wrong. We pulled the 50 biggest single-day percentage gains in SPX history (going back to 1950), and the results are almost comically one-sided: - **90%** occurred when SPX was below its 200-day moving average - **72%** occurred during a bear market (>20% drawdown from all-time high) - The average drawdown from ATH at the time of these "huge rallies" was **-28.2%** The Top 20: A Hall of Pain #DateReturnDrawdownContext 1Oct 13, 2008+11.58%-35.9%Global Financial Crisis 2Oct 28, 2008+10.79%-39.9%GFC — weeks before the real bottom 3Apr 9, 2025+9.52%-11.2%Tariff war relief rally 4Mar 24, 2020+9.38%-27.7%COVID crash 5Mar 13, 2020+9.29%-19.9%COVID — before the real crash 6Oct 21, 1987+9.10%-23.3%Two days after Black Monday 7Mar 23, 2009+7.08%-47.4%The actual GFC bottom 8Apr 6, 2020+7.03%-21.3%COVID dead cat bounce 9Nov 13, 2008+6.92%-41.8%GFC 10Nov 24, 2008+6.47%-45.6%GFC 11Mar 10, 2009+6.37%-54.0%13 days before the real bottom 12Nov 21, 2008+6.32%-48.9%GFC 13Mar 26, 2020+6.24%-22.3%COVID 14Mar 17, 2020+6.00%-25.3%COVID 15Jul 24, 2002+5.73%-44.8%Dot-com bust 16Nov 10, 2022+5.54%-17.5%CPI surprise 17Sep 30, 2008+5.42%-25.5%GFC 18Jul 29, 2002+5.41%-41.1%Dot-com bust 19Oct 20, 1987+5.33%-29.7%Day after Black Monday 20Dec 16, 2008+5.14%-41.7%GFC **All 20 occurred below the 200-day moving average.** Every single one. Top 50 single-day gains overlaid on SPX drawdown from ATH. Red dots = below 200-SMA. Green = above. Why Does This Happen? **The mechanical reason:** In volatile markets, daily price ranges expand dramatically. A stock that normally moves 0.5% per day might start moving 3-5% per day. This expands both the upside and downside extremes. The biggest up days and the biggest down days are siblings, not opposites. **The psychological reason:** Massive rallies happen when fear reaches a breaking point. Short sellers cover. Bargain hunters pile in. Central banks announce emergency measures. The relief is explosive — but temporary. Because the fundamental problems that caused the crash haven't been solved in 6.5 hours of trading. October 13, 2008 — the biggest single-day gain ever — happened during the Global Financial Crisis. SPX rallied 11.58%. The market was down -35.9% from its all-time high. And it would go on to fall another **20%** before bottoming in March 2009. That +11.58% day? It was a pit stop on the way to hell, not a U-turn. Of the top 50 single-day gains: 90% below 200-SMA, 72% during bear markets (>20% drawdown). Where They Cluster - **1950-1970:** 3 events (20 years of boring, steady gains) - **1970-1987:** 7 events (inflation crisis era) - **1987 Crash:** 2 of the top 50 in just 2 trading days - **1988-2000:** 4 events (12 years of bull market = few extreme days) - **Dot-com bust:** 5 events - **GFC (2008-2009):** 12 events - **2010-2020:** 12 events (mostly COVID) - **2021+:** 2 events The pattern is unmistakable: **boring decades produce few extreme up days. Chaotic periods produce dozens.** The Boring Edge Takeaway This is the thesis of our entire publication, crystallized in one chart: **The most exciting days in market history are the most dangerous.** If you see a +5% day and feel the urge to buy, pause. Look at where the market is relative to its 200-day moving average. Look at the drawdown from ATH. Chances are, you're not buying a recovery — you're buying a bounce inside a crash. The real bull signals? They're boring: - Slow, steady advances above a rising 200-SMA - Average daily moves of 0.3-0.5% - Low VIX (below 15) - No headline-worthy single days When nothing exciting is happening, that's when the compounding is happening. When everybody's screaming "biggest gain in 90 days!" — that's when the compounding has been interrupted. **Boring is the edge. Excitement is the tax.** *Data: S&P 500, January 1950 – March 2026. Bear market defined as >20% drawdown from prior all-time high. 200-SMA calculated on daily closing prices.*