比特幣平均 K 線策略回測:改良版 K 線能過濾市場雜訊嗎?

平均 K 線(Heikin Ashi)透過平均化價格讓趨勢更清晰。綠色 = 多頭,紅色 = 空頭。策略超簡單:綠色就持有,紅色就出場。這種基本做法能打敗市場嗎?

策略規則

  • 買入:Heikin Ashi K 線轉綠(HA 收盤 > HA 開盤)
  • 賣出:K 線轉紅(HA 收盤 < HA 開盤)
  • 無參數優化——純價格行為
  • 倉位 100%——全進或全出
  • 每筆交易 0.1% 手續費
  • 無槓桿、不做空

回測結果

期間: 2017-08-17 to 2026-03-23 (8.6 years)

策略年化報酬率
37.2%
買入持有年化
38.7%
策略最大回撤
-73.9%
B&H最大回撤
-83.2%
總交易次數
368
勝率
34.0%
盈虧比
3.1x
在場時間
53.5%

關鍵發現

完整交易記錄

#進場出場報酬天數
12017-08-232017-09-02+8.5%10
22017-09-062017-09-08-7.5%2
32017-09-162017-09-17-0.6%1
42017-09-182017-09-21-10.7%3
52017-09-242017-10-03+17.6%9
62017-10-062017-10-17+27.9%11
72017-10-192017-10-23+3.9%4
82017-10-262017-10-28-2.6%2
92017-10-292017-11-06+12.6%8
102017-11-082017-11-10-11.1%2
(348 more trades)
3582025-12-282026-01-07+3.7%10
3592026-01-122026-01-18+2.4%6
3602026-01-272026-01-29-5.4%2
3612026-02-072026-02-10-0.8%3
3622026-02-142026-02-16-1.5%2
3632026-02-202026-02-23-5.1%3
3642026-02-252026-02-27-3.3%2
3652026-03-012026-03-06+3.4%5
3662026-03-102026-03-18+1.7%8
3672026-03-232026-03-23 (open)-0.1%0

數據來源:Binance BTC/USDT 日線。包含 0.1% 手續費。過去績效不保證未來表現。

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